Connectivity, Autonomous Technology, On-Demand Mobility, and Vehicle Electrification Will Transform Global Passenger Transportation

A new white paper from Navigant Research examines the long-term evolution of individual transportation based on an assessment of four key trends vehicle connectivity, vehicle autonomy, on-demand mobility, and vehicle electrification—from 2025 to 2050.Current developments in automotive technology preview a future where vehicles are capable of doing the driving and electric drive technology is efficient and affordable. At the same time, governments are increasingly pushing for reductions in emissions, the long-term trend of people moving to live in urban areas is forcing cities to regulate private car usage, and 24/7 connectivity is becoming more prevalent, ultimately signaling a shift in the transportation industry. Click to tweet: According to a new white paper from @NavigantRSRCH, the intersection of vehicle connectivity, autonomous technology, on-demand mobility, and vehicle electrification will transform global passenger transportation.

“By mid-century, the practice of someone primarily driving himself or herself around town in a gasoline car will be as unusual as traveling by horse and buggy is today,” says John Gartner, senior research director with Navigant Research. “Instead, the combination and intersection of autonomous, shared, connected, and electric vehicle technologies will contribute to the gradual reduction of the number of cars on the road beginning in the 2030s that is already prompting automakers to expand to a variety of new mobility as a service business models.”By 2050, the only element of personal mobility common to the turn of this century might be the act of moving around in self-contained vehicles on wheels, according to the report. The development of carsharing and ride-hailing services is at the core of a trend toward on-demand mobility that veers away from individual vehicle ownership, which is expected to gradually decline in popularity as mobility services expand.

This report, Transportation Outlook: 2025 to 2050, takes a high-level look at the long-term evolution of individual transportation based on an assessment of four key trends—vehicle connectivity, vehicle autonomy, on-demand mobility, and vehicle electrification—and factors such as the progress of urbanization. Because the timeframe of 2025-2050 is so far in the future, it is not practical to offer global market forecasts for annual sales of specific technologies. Rather, the paper considers how the transformation of individual mobility will affect the overall vehicle market, as well as vehicle manufacturers and other key stakeholders involved in automotive industry technology development.