New Analysis of National Climate Plans Reveals Total Renewable Energy Supply in 8 Major Economies to Double by 2030

Renewable energy supply is set to double collectively in eight major economies by 2030 spurred on by new national climate and energy plans, according to new analysis by World Resources Institute. These renewable energy levels will be 18 percent higher in 2030 than previously projected growth rates, WRI found.

WRI’s analysis, Assessing the Post-2020 Clean Energy Landscape, looks at plans from eight of the 10 largest greenhouse gas emitters—Brazil, China, European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico and the United States—and finds that their cumulative clean energy supply will jump from approximately 9,000 TWh in 2012 to 20,000 TWh in 2030. This increase is equivalent to all of India’s current energy demand.

“These new renewable energy targets send strong signals to energy markets and investment circles,” said Jennifer Morgan, Global Director, Climate Program, World Resources Institute. “Combined with the Paris climate agreement, it’s clear that renewable energy is poised to surge forward in the next 15 years bringing clean and affordable power to millions of people worldwide.”

Following are major countries’ new national energy targets announced in the past 12 months:

– Brazil will achieve 45 percent of renewables in their energy mix by 2030;

– China will increase the share of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent by 2030;

– European Union will achieve at least a 27 percent share of renewable energy consumption by 2030;

– India will achieve about 40 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel energy resources by 2030 (with international assistance);

– Indonesia will achieve at least 23 percent of its energy supply coming from new and renewable energy by 2025;

– Japan will increase its share of renewables in total electricity generation to approximately 22 to 24 percent by 2030;

– Mexico will increase clean energy sources in the national electricity generation mix to 35 percent by 2024; and

– United States will increase the U.S. share of renewables – beyond hydropower – in the electricity generation mix to 20 percent by 2030.

The remaining two emitters among the top ten, Canada and Russia, have not put forward post-2020 renewable energy targets and were not assessed. Note also that not all of the major emitters made clean energy pledges in their INDCs, including the United States, European Union and Mexico. For instance the United States announced its commitment as part of a joint announcement with Brazil in June 2015.

WRI also analyzed countries’ intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) submitted to the United Nations and found that countries of all sizes intend to transform their energy mix and increase investments in clean energy. Out of the 127 INDCs submitted by October 26, 2015, 80 percent of them referenced clean energy; 67 INDCs (53 percent) mention clean energy targets; and 35 INDCs (27 percent) put forward clean energy actions.

A sampling of smaller countries that are promoting increased renewable energy use include:

– Belize intends to increase its share of renewable energy in its electricity mix by 85 percent by 2027;

– Bolivia plans to increase its share of renewables to 79 percent of its energy mix by 2030;

– The Marshall Islands supports using more renewable energy and energy efficiency and expects to replace more than a third of its fossil fuels for electricity and transport by 2030;

– Eritrea intends to raise the share of electricity generation from renewable energy to 70 percent of the total electricity generation mix by 2030; and

– Vanuatu intends to transition to close to 100 percent renewable energy in the electricity sector by 2030.