In Short : India aims to reduce its solar industry’s import dependence to 10% by 2030, down from 90%. This shift is driven by investments in domestic manufacturing and government policies supporting renewable energy. However, reaching the 500 GW renewable energy target by 2030 may still require substantial imports, potentially costing India $30 billion annually.
In Detail : New Delhi – India’s solar module manufacturing industry is on the cusp of a transformative journey, with the next five years poised to redefine its export-import dynamics, according to a recent CRISIL report.
The sector’s growth is underpinned by robust domestic demand, estimated at an average of 50-55 gigawatts (GW) annually from Fiscal 2024 to 2030.
However, increasing domestic production is set to outpace demand from Fiscal 2025 onward, leading to an oversupply that could fuel exports.
“Increasing production of modules is expected to result in oversupply from Fiscal 2025 onwards, leaving room for exports,” the report highlighted.
India exported approximately 7 GW of solar modules in Fiscal 2024, representing nearly 50 per cent of its production. While absolute export volumes are expected to grow, the share of exports in total production is projected to moderate to 25-32 per cent by Fiscal 2030 due to rising domestic consumption.
On the import front, reliance on overseas modules, which stood at 59 per cent in Fiscal 2024, is set to plummet.
The reimplementation of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) from Fiscal 2025, combined with increased production capacity, is expected to reduce import dependency to just 5-10 per cent by Fiscal 2030.
Despite these advances, India’s solar manufacturing ecosystem remains heavily reliant on imports for upstream components such as polysilicon, wafers, and cells, given limited integrated manufacturing capacity.
While domestic cell manufacturing is expected to grow, dependency on imported cells will persist, albeit at reduced levels.
Falling solar component prices over the past three years have bolstered imports, but this trend may reverse as domestic manufacturing scales up. Nonetheless, critical imports are unlikely to be eliminated entirely.
With expanding production capacities and supportive policies, India’s solar module manufacturing sector is poised to play a pivotal role in global markets.
The industry’s evolution is expected to bolster the nation’s clean energy transition, improve energy security, and substantially reduce its reliance on imports, marking a milestone in India’s renewable energy ambitions.
