In Short : Adani Green Energy is projected to achieve a 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in its energy capacity. This significant expansion underscores the company’s aggressive growth strategy in the renewable energy sector. As Adani Green Energy continues to scale up its capacity, it reinforces its position as a key player in driving India’s clean energy transition and meeting its renewable energy targets.
In Detail : The bulk 8 GW of the 12 GW SECI solar manufacturing tender was also won by AGEL. 2 GW in Khavda was commissioned within a year of the company breaking ground.
Adani Green Energy Ltd, the renewable energy firm of billionaire Gautam Adani’s conglomerate, is expected to clock an operational capacity CAGR of over 30% to reach more than 50 GW of capacity by 2030, a report said on Monday.
AGEL is targeting 6-7 GW of capacity additions annually to become the largest renewable energy producer in the world.
Initiating coverage of AGEL, brokerage Emkay said the firm’s renewable capacity would see more than a 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from now till 2030 while improved capacity utilisation will drive a power sales CAGR of about 35%.
“We expect AGEL to clock operational renewable energy (RE) capacity CAGR of 31% to 56.5 GW (including input solar for PSP) during FY24-30E, as the Khavda supersite is developed up to 30 GW verses about 2GW as of FY24-end (now at 2.3GW), coupled with expansion in other assets like Rajasthan and PSP (pumped storage plants),” it said.
The company aims to achieve this by FY29 (April 2028 to March 2029 fiscal).
AGEL commenced operations in FY16 and hit the 1 GW capacity mark in the first half of 2017-18. During FY18 till end-FY24, operational capacity CAGR was rapid at 33%, up from 2 GW to almost 11 GW, with solar being the mainstay and growing to 7.4 GW from 1.9 GW, with wind capacity rising from 60 MW to 1.4 GW; also, hybrid project capacity (in Rajasthan), which started from FY23 stood at 2.1 GW.
AGEL has secured a power purchase agreement for 20.4 GW capacity so far, with 10 GW being operational, some of the key assets are Kamuthi (0.6 GW), solar-wind hybrid cluster in Rajasthan (2.1 GW), and the recently commissioned 2 GW in Khavda.
The firm acquired SB Energy’s 5GW portfolio in 2021, which included 1.7 GW of operational capacity, with the remaining being under construction/in the development phase.
The bulk 8 GW of the 12 GW SECI solar manufacturing tender was also won by AGEL. 2 GW in Khavda was commissioned within a year of the company breaking ground.
“AGEL aims to be the lowest-cost producer across the lifecycle of an asset,” Emkay said.
“It has the ability to gain efficiencies right from the construction stage, with large-scale in-house execution, better negotiation capability with vendors (modules, etc), project management expertise, and rapid development, resulting in faster commissioning and leading to lower IDC and pre-op cost.”
It saw revenue growth of 35% CAGR during FY24 – FY30 – Gujarat (Khavda) and Rajasthan sites (most resource-rich sites globally) will help AGEL grow its revenues at 35% CAGR, giving a clear runway of another 50 GW, plus another 6.5 GW with pump storage solutions and evacuation visibility.
Also, the capacity utilisation factor (CUF) will improve as the new sites are resource-abundant to increase output volume, it said, adding that a higher share of merchant and commercial, and industries (CI) would improve realisations.
The balance sheet would improve drastically, and net debt to EBITDA may fall to 3.6x from 7.4x despite expansion as the cash flows from existing projects will provide majorly for future expansion, it added.
