The next five-year period in China’s economic calendar may herald better days for the global solar industry, with government policy expected to spur demand growth in the top market through 2025 after a slump the past two years.
Annual capacity additions are forecast at 50 gigawatts in 2021, and then increasing 10% every year through 2025, Trina Solar Ltd. Chairman Gao Jifan said Thursday during a group interview in Shenzhen. That is the period covered under China’s next economic blueprint — officially known as the 14th Five-Year Plan — that sets targets and lays out strategies.
Not only would this exceed the record 53 gigawatts in 2017, it also signals a reversal of the situation since last year, when installations tumbled after the government’s abrupt cut to subsidies. China may add 45 gigawatts next year, from 28 gigawatts this year, according to a forecast from China National Renewable Energy Center, a state-backed researcher.
After China’s solar sector transitions away from relying on subsidies, the market will be “bigger and more vibrant,” Trina’s Gao said. He added that the growth forecasts through 2025 are “reasonable” given the country’s target to derive 20% of energy from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.
The nation’s total solar capacity may jump to as much as 550 gigawatts by the end of the next five-year period in 2025, according to estimates from Gao and China National Renewable Energy Center’s deputy director Tao Ye. The nation had 190 gigawatts of solar power capacity as of end-September.
Solar will become the cheapest form of new electricity generation, which will help to drive growth, Tao told a conference Thursday. Annual installations may even exceed 100 gigawatts around 2025, said Wang Zhongying, deputy head of Energy Research Institute, an organization affiliated with the National Development & Reform Commission.
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
