Polysilicon
Returning from the National Day holiday, polysilicon manufacturers bring capacities online steadily. The sector will add 25% more new production capacities in the fourth quarter, the largest quarter-on-quarter increase since 2020. Meantime, actual polysilicon production volume will rise more evidently.
Prices sustain at RMB 301-306/kg for mono-grade polysilicon a week after the National Day holiday, for some major manufacturers had already settled new orders before the holiday. Prices stabilize this week, as manufacturers focus on delivering orders.
The recurring pandemic hits northwest China. Covid restrictions, doubled with rare temperature plunge and unusually early rain and snow in northern China, disrupts logistics of upstream sectors to varying degrees. Such a condition is a new challenge for the polysilicon and wafer sectors, of which production capacities are coming online.
* Investigation of InfoLink covers polysilicon prices at which orders have been delivered from the previous Thursday to this Wednesday and have been signed recently. We track mainstream prices and provide feedback for the industry. Therefore, changes and future price trend will gradually emerge during periods of higher order volume. Prices for sporadic orders are to be heeded.
Wafer
In the first week following the holiday, mono-Si wafer prices sustain, and previously slowed inventory draws recover. Mono-Si wafer supply falls short, as pandemic outbreaks in northwestern China take tolls on production of major manufacturers. Given stronger inventory draws following the holiday, the market still expects prices to drop. Having said that, the outlook for wafer demand improves temporarily, as downstream sectors manage to keep production and inventory on track.
The sudden Covid resurgence will affect supply-demand relationship from mid-October onwards. Still, current supply and production capacity increases of upstream sectors will hold back price hikes at the end of this month or early next month.
Cell
Cell shortage intensifies, as module makers deliver actively to secure shipment ranking and market share in the fourth quarter. Meantime, leading cell manufacturers expand business to the module sector, leaving fewer cells available on the market, deepening the supply tightness.
Cell prices come in as expected. New orders sealed early this month show prices rise for M10 and G12 cells. The latter advance by 2.3% amid severe shortage. M6 cells, with shrinking supply and demand, see prices sustain for the time being. Overall, M6, M10, and G12 cells are traded at RMB 1.31-1.33/W, RMB 1.33-1.34/W, and RMB 1.33-1.34/W, respectively.
Cell supply will remain short. Factoring in old, idled, and small-format production capacities, cell production volume, especially that of high-efficiency cells markedly decline, even though raw material price hikes cease. As a result, cell supply fails to meet the robust short-term demand. In October, cell prices will stay elevated. Shortage will not ease until the end of the year, when inventory draws slow down.
Module
Glass-glass modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered at RMB 1.95-2.05/W this week, with RMB 0.01-0.03/W of price difference with glass-backsheet ones. As cell prices rise, Tier-1 module makers keep price quotes firmly at RMB 1.95/W in the fourth quarter. However, some makers purportedly offer price quotes as low as RMB 1.91-1.93/W, even lower than RMB 1.9/W, for competition will begin at the end of the fourth quarter. Most of these quotes are for long-term orders to be delivered during the end of this year and early next year, thus will not affect module prices this month.
Ground-mounted projects are under construction during September and October. Most Tier-1 module makers keep at least 80% of utilization rates. Subject to lofty cell prices, some mid and small-scale makers cut utilization rates or take OEM orders to maintain utilization rates.
In overseas markets, prices keep stepping down slowly, reaching USD 0.25-0.265/W. This is largely attributed to exchange rate fluctuation, higher inflation, and inverter shortage. Projects for the fourth quarter are delayed to next year. Future development hinges on Fed rate hikes.
This week, module prices (FOB) sit at USD 0.248-0.28/W in Europe, USD 0.25-0.26/W in the Asia Pacific region, and USD 0.25-0.26/W in Brazil. Local module prices in India translate to around USD 0.34-0.365/W (FOB). In the U.S., prices come in at USD 0.55-0.6/W (DDP) for locally made modules.
N-type cell and module
This week, prices remain at last week’s level. Most manufacturers offer price quotes for n-type products. We will decide whether to post the spot price of G12 HJT products or not by the fourth quarter of the year, considering mass production activities of all manufacturers.
N-type cells are mainly purchased for in-house capacities, with few external sales. Prices sustain at RMB 1.45-1.6/W for M6 HJT cells and sit at RMB 1.4-1.45/W for M10 and G12 TOPCon cells.
Module prices fluctuate with exchange rates this week, coming in at RMB 2.1-2.15/W and USD 0.28-0.3/W in overseas markets for M6 HJT modules; RMB 2.03-2.05/W and USD 0.27-0.28/W in overseas markets for M10 and G12 TOPCon modules.
