Eos, Hecate to Deliver Australian thermal power plants face more competition
Australian coal-fired power plants could be facing more competition in the coming years with forecasts that rooftop solar installed capacity is expected to double to 26,000MW in the next four years, which equates to about 39pc of the combined installed capacity of Australia’s two largest power generation networks.
Small-scale rooftop solar is on track to have a record 2,900MW installed in 2020, which exceeds the previous record of 2,600MW in 2011 and 2,400MW in 2019, according to the latest quarterly carbon market report from Australia’s Clean Energy Regulator (CER).
Modelling commissioned by the CER to provide a short-term outlook for small-scale (0-100kW) and mid-scale (100kW- 30MW) systems suggests that investment in rooftop solar may remain strong for the foreseeable future with an average of 3,000MW added each year for the next four years.
“If realised, this investment would effectively double rooftop solar capacity, to 26,000MW, by the end of 2024,” the CER said. Australia’s largest electricity network is east Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM), which has an installed capacity, including roof-top solar, of around 61,000MW. The second largest is the South West Interconnected System in southern Western Australia, which has an installed capacity of around 6,000MW.
Renewable energy was the source for around 26pc of the electricity generated in the NEM over the past 12 months, according to data from the OpenNEM website. Coal accounted for around 67pc of the power generated in the NEM over the same period and the remaining 7pc came from gas. Renewables accounted for less than 10pc of Australia’s power generation in 2010 when coal accounted just below 80pc and gas was around 12pc.
Further penetration of renewables could make further inroads into the market share of coal and gas with solar competing with coal during the day when solar output is at its peak, while the timing of wind generation during a 24-hour period is less predictable. Black-fired coal power generation in east Australia fell to its lowest level for a July-September quarter since 2014.
The IEA in November forecast in its report on renewables that 13,600MW of new capacity would be installed in Australia during 2021-25 with 4,200MW coming from wind and 8,400MW from solar. The CER has a higher projection of renewables installation over this period with a forecast of at least 17,600MW to be installed in this time period, of which 2,400MW comes from wind and 15,600 MW from solar. The CER forecast is based on utility-scale projects currently financed or underpinned by power purchase agreements and recent modelling results for rooftop and mid-scale solar.
Around 150MW of gas-fired power plants are forecast to close in east Australia in 2021, at a time when gas’ share of power generation is falling in Australia. The 1,680MW Liddell coal-fired power plant in New South Wales is forecast to fully close by April 2023.
Source : argusmedia
