The ‘Rapid’ scenario assumes policies resulting in a sharp increase in carbon prices while the ‘Net Zero’ reinforces ‘Rapid’ with major shifts in societal behaviour. The third scenario is ‘Business-as-Usual’
New Delhi: The global energy demand would continue to grow for at least part of the period to 2050 and over this time, the structure of energy demand would shift to a declining role for fossil fuels by an increasing share for renewable energy and electricity, according to a BP’s latest report.
The report titled ‘BP Energy Outlook 2020’ is based on three scenarios, which are alternative assumptions about policies and societal preferences and are designed to help explore the range of outcomes possible over the next 30 years.
The ‘Rapid’ scenario assumes policies resulting in a sharp increase in carbon prices while the ‘Net Zero’ reinforces ‘Rapid’ with major shifts in societal behaviour. The third scenario is ‘Business-as-Usual’.
“In all three scenarios, global energy demand grows, driven by increasing prosperity and living standards in the emerging world. Primary energy demand plateaus in the second half of the Outlook in ‘Rapid’ and ‘Net Zero’ as improvements in energy efficiency accelerate. In ‘Business-as-Usual’, demand continues to grow throughout the Outlook, reaching about 25 per cent higher by 2050,” said the report.
According to the report, the transition to a lower carbon energy system would result in a more diverse energy mix, as all three scenarios saw a decline in the share of the global energy system for hydrocarbons and a corresponding increase in renewable energy as the world increasingly electrifies.
“Even as the pandemic has dramatically reduced global carbon emissions, the world remains on an unsustainable path. However, the analysis in the Outlook shows that, with decisive policy measures and more low carbon choices from both companies and consumers, the energy transition still can be delivered,” said Bernard Looney, chief executive officer at BP.
The report said that the scale of the shift varies significantly across the scenarios, with the share of hydrocarbons in primary energy declining from 85 per cent in 2018 to between 65 per cent to 20 per cent by 2050 and that of renewable energy rising to 20 per cent to 60 per cent.
It added that the wind and solar would lead fast growth in renewable energy, as renewables are the fastest growing source of energy over the next 30 years in all the scenarios.
“The share of primary energy from renewables grows from around 5 per cent in 2018 to 60 per cent by 2050 in ‘Net Zero’, 45 per cent in ‘Rapid’ and 20 per cent in ‘Business-as-Usual’. Wind and solar power dominate this growth, underpinned by continuing falls in development costs, lower in 2050 by around 30 per cent and 65 per cent for wind and solar, respectively, in ‘Rapid’ and by 35 per cent and 70 per cent in ‘Net Zero’,” BP said.
The growth would require a significant acceleration in the build out of renewable capacity. It said that in ‘Rapid’ and ‘Net Zero’, the average annual increase in wind and solar capacity over the first half of the Outlook was about 350 gigawatt (GW) and 550 (GW), respectively, compared to the annual average of about 60 GW since 2000.
Source: energy.economictimes.indiatimes
