In Short : India faces a significant challenge in meeting its 2030 wind energy targets, according to Ember. The country needs to accelerate its efforts in expanding wind power capacity to close the existing gap and achieve its renewable energy goals.
In Detail : The report looks at 2030 national wind targets in 70 countries plus the EU, which collectively represent 99% of current global wind capacity
Will India miss its wind energy targets for 2030? India is the fourth-largest wind market globally and has the second largest gap between forecast installations and what is needed to meet the 2030 target, finds a new report from energy think tank Ember.
India’s overall renewables capacity target is for a tripling—from 163 GW in 2022 to 509 GW by 2030. For wind, this means an increase of 2.6 times—from 42 GW in 2022 to 110 GW in 2030, according to the latest National Electricity Plans.
Achieving this level requires building 9.3 GW of wind capacity annually from 2024 to 2030. Although annual wind installations in India have risen over the past three years and were 51% higher in 2023 than in 2022, the current build rate of 2.8 GW in 2023 is well below what is needed, according to the report.
Globally, the report finds that national targets by governments add up to just over a doubling of the global wind capacity by 2030, but fall short of tripling. The current sum of 2030 national wind targets is 2,157 GW, a 2.4x increase from 901 GW capacity recorded in 2022. Reaching a global tripling of wind would require an additional capacity of 585 GW.
The report looks at 2030 national wind targets in 70 countries plus the EU, which collectively represent 99% of current global wind capacity. It suggests that the US and India have a large gap between forecast installations and what is actually needed to meet their current 2030 targets.
Other countries like Brazil and Türkiye are discussed as examples of countries that are making progress and set to overachieve on their wind targets.
“Governments are lacking ambition on wind, and especially onshore wind. Amidst the hype of solar, wind is not getting enough attention, even though it provides cheap electricity and complements solar,” said Dr Katye Altieri, electricity analyst at Ember.
At the UN’s COP28 climate change conference in December, countries reached an agreement to triple global renewables capacity by 2030. The International Energy Agency (IEA) declared this action the ‘single most important lever’ to cut emissions this decade and keep the 1.5C goal within reach. According to the IEA, to meet the tripling renewables capacity goal, wind capacity should also at least triple.
The analysis suggests that global wind capacity will double and that is mostly because China is expected to over-deliver and the rest of the world in aggregate is on course to under-deliver. The latest industry forecasts suggest that China is set to triple wind capacity by 2030 and it will continue to account for over half of global wind additions every year from 2024 to 2030.
