PV Industry Price Trend: Upstream Sector Continues to Drop in Prices amidst Market Adjustment Period; Demand Provides Restricted Degree of Fallback in Polysilicon Prices – EQ Mag Pro

Polysilicon

The transaction status of the polysilicon market had somewhat improved compared to mid-November, where polysilicon quotations are now constantly dropping. Most polysilicon businesses are currently in the order delivery phase, and the reduction of polysilicon prices primarily comes from sporadic spot orders. Individual businesses are still holding onto sturdy quotations as seen from early December, with almost no transactions concluded, and have slightly accumulated in inventory.

Price reduction of mono-Si dense materials is now approaching to that of compound feeding, and overall quotations of mono-Si polysilicon has dropped to roughly RMB 235/kg. Judging from market feedbacks, leading wafer businesses have once again lowered their quotations, which resulted in successive follow-up from other businesses. The downstream market currently remains in an adjustment phase. Wafer businesses will start to sign for January orders next week, and concluded prices are expected to fall below current quotations as the market is adamant towards further price depletion.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the domestic polysilicon sector indicates that Inner Mongolia Tongwei and Daqo New Energy have been successively initiating new capacity (totaling 85K tons/year) since December, thus there has been a MoM increase of approximately 45K tons in polysilicon during the month when coupled with the projects of GCL-Poly and Sichuan Tongwei.

In terms of orders, recent signing of polysilicon has been met with a low level of activeness as a whole due to a lower degree of operating rate from the downstream sector, where partial polysilicon businesses are experiencing elevating inventory, and a minor excessive provision of polysilicon is seen in the market. The supply and demand of the polysilicon market will once again shift towards a tight balance with the initiation of stocking demand before and after Chinese New Year.

Wafers

Wafer quotations had declined sizably this week primarily seen from mono-Si products. Market quotations have been chaotic after Longi’s announcement of its latest round of quotes, where some businesses are adjusting their quotations accordingly, while others are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude under constantly depleting inventory. A small number of businesses are dumping their inventory for the purpose of surging year-end sales volume, though there have been fewer concluded orders in the market this week, which manifests an apparent status of market bargaining.

As reduction continues in the price and inventory of wafers, the average market price of G1 wafers has dropped to RMB 4.83/pc, while M6 mono-Si wafers are temporarily maintained at RMB 4.9/pc due to supply decrement. As for large-sized products, the average market prices of M10 and G12 have been lowered to RMB 5.7/pc and RMB 8/pc respectively.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the domestic wafer sector indicates a relatively sluggish operating rate right now, followed by postponed initiation schedule of new capacity, though the downstream demand for wafer remains unfulfilled. The continuous fallback of upstream prices, together with the invigoration from stocking demand prior to Chinese New Year, will somewhat actuate an increase in operating rate for the wafer sector.

Cells

Cell quotations had slightly loosened this week, and overall mono-Si prices had remained stable. There were no significant fluctuations among cell quotations this week as most first-tier businesses have yet to announce their list prices for January, though price declination is starting to be seen from sporadic orders. In addition, the persisting adjustments in the wafer market recently has enhanced the wait-and-see approach of cell businesses, who are now cautious in quotations. In terms of orders, the end demand had yet to improve this week, with a mediocre level of cell demand. Mono-Si M6 cells are marginally stabilized in prices due to subsided market supply, and are temporarily maintained at an average market price of RMB 1.02/W.

However, the increase in the shipment ratio of large-sized products is restricting the demand visibility of mono-Si m6 in the subsequent market. This round of development may persist for a shorter time period primarily owing to the reinstallation demand of PV projects in the first quarter of 2022. Regarding multi-Si cells, recent prices are continuous weakening under the lethargic demand in India, and the downstream sector carries on with its wait-and see approach from difficulties in order signing. Domestic and overseas prices of multi-Si cells have further reduced to RMB 0.72/W and US$0.102.

Modules

Module prices had marginally oscillated this week, where 166mm and 210mm modules continued to drop in quotations. The end market saw no apparent improvement this week. Despite constant reduction of upstream prices from the industry chain, the lower purchase demand from the end sector has led to fewer negotiation orders for modules, which in turn yielded a slower price fluctuation. The mainstream quotation for 166mm modules had dropped to RMB 1.85/W, while the mainstream quotation for 182mm modules has been lowered to roughly RMB 1.9/W, and 210mm modules have decreased to approximately RMB 1.87/W in quotation.

An observation on the production and operation of the module sector denotes that most module makers are still inhibiting their operating rate at 50-70% due to the ambiguous demand in the first quarter of 2022, which explains their current inventory level that is regarded as normal. Several module makers have commented on their recent perception in the pressure of price drop applied by the downstream sector during procurement, and are having trouble in maintaining sturdy quotations. The declining tendency of the module market is expected to carry on next week.

Pertaining to auxiliary materials, glass quotations were stabilized in quotations this week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses are now RMB 25-26/㎡ and RMB 19-21/㎡ respectively. The end demand has yet to significantly improve since December, and partial PV glass production lines have postponed the schedule of ignition, while some businesses have decided to lower their production volume. Glass shipment was met with obstacles this week, where several businesses had lowered their quotations for 3.2mm glasses to RMB 23-24/㎡ in order to seize orders, though the volume of transactions has been insignificant.

Source: energytrend