This webinar was held by EQ Magazine Pro on 30th March 2022. In this webinar, pricing trends of solar cells, wafers and polysilicone were discussed. It was moderated by Mr Goutam Samanta, Head PV Technology, Juniper Green Energy Private Limited.
Mr Manish Narula, Executive Vice President, South Asia, Jinko Solar told when asked the plan to go ahead with the vertically integrated capacity in China is 35 gigawatt, “Because of upcoming BCD, there is a price pressure on everybody and being a module supplier and a vertically integrated company, it is our responsibility to help all our stakeholders. We are a vertically integrated company and we are planning to transition from a conventional P-type module company to an N-type module company by the end of this year. Price trends are not only driven by the raw materials but also by the technologies. And it is our responsibility to drive the market through high technologies and high efficiencies so that our project partners and our developers could be benefitted from that technological upgradation. Overall, as per our estimates this will help to gain almost 4% to 5% higher energy yield in 25 to 30 years. This technology comes with a price premium but the price that it is offering presently will be easily offset by the benefits that it can offer. We have seen the same pattern when the market moved from polycrystalline to monocrystalline. There was a premium on that technology but it was very well offset by the additional energy gain.”
He also talked about wafer and cell technologies, “Wafer and cell technologies are supporting the improvement in the overall price trend. The capacities of global wafer suppliers, polysilicon mining companies and refining companies is increasing. By July or August, there will be at least 30% improvement in the overall polysilicon material availability because of which the overall capacity of module making will cross around 400 to 500 gigawatt, annually in the globe. We will see that overall the price will remain the same or slightly higher but the availability and technological choice will improve. This will also help in terms of managing the low tariff regime even after the implementation of BCD.”
Mr Rahul Morde, GM, Business Development, LONGi Solar Technology India Private Limited, shared about the new things the company is involved in as it is shifting from poly to mono. He said, “The technological arrangements are being done in LONGi, still the announcement is pending from our side. There are different technologies on which we have already worked upon. In 2020, LONGi has achieved close to 4.2 GW of shipment for the Indian market and globally, close to 24.5 GW. I 2021, it was 4.2 GW for Indian market and close to 28 GW globally. LONGi is also planning to set up a factory in India. Certainly there are some challenges related to ALMM. Eventually, the technology upgradation will only cater the demand as well as the market requirement in terms of competitiveness. Since last Q4 of 2021, market has been drastically changed because there was a power cut element in China which has gradually impacted the polysilicon prices and eventually it has impacted the supply of modules in Q4. Somehow, the market started stabilising in the month of January and which has helped all the IPPs in the Indian market to bring as much as modules they can import in Q1 to avoid BCD.”
Mr Syed Naqvi, Head, Module Technology, ACME Solar told about the various criteria for selecting a wafer. He said, “When it comes to anti-wafer, the only advantage that the developer gets is the lower LID values. The LID will not be zero. The wafer cost for N type and P type wafer is not same, it is very difficult to maintain the same level of the doping concentration throughout the top to the bottom. So, necessarily the centre bricks need to be more expensive. And when it comes to developers, I always do cost analysis, how much I’m getting and how much premium they are charging me. The efficiency in the wafer qualities, the parameters that have been defined such as the minority charge carrier, oxygen atoms concentration, these are critical parameters while making a selection. Unfortunately, the wafers that are importing to India are not the A+ category. So, if you compare the same manufacturing factory in China versus India in terms of average efficiency there is a difference of about 0.5%.”
Mr Srinivas Popuri, Vice President, Group Quality, Greenko Energies Private Limited put his views on how to ensure the quality is maintained with the kind of the specifications as well as control plan at different stages, in front of the panellists. He said, “In India, infrastructure is still not there so we need to see how the infrastructure would come. It will take a couple of years or maybe 3 years for building the infrastructure to get developed. And how the manufacturers and suppliers in India will respond to our requirements. The manufacturing setup in China is quite mature but in India, we need to put in a lot of effort. Now, Indian manufacturers are going ahead instead of copying China’s success factor. In the future scenario, if it targets the carbon neutral, India has a bright future and if we talk about the current pricing of the modules and the wafers, maybe we are considering it a little higher with respect to the imports and Indian manufacturing is also a little costly. It will take a turn around in the future because we are talking about almost 450 gigawatts of installed capacity by 2030. Indian manufacturers will scale up their production which will bring down the prices. Along with it, green ammonia and green hydrogen will help us to make India a superpower in the future.”
Mr Vikas Arya, Strategic Head, Associate Vice President Product Strategy, Jakson Group shared his views on price trends with the panellists. He said, “The last month as a manufacturer has been very dicey, we have not been able to book any new orders because of the challenging pricing and a huge demand from the market. So, for now we are completing our commitment for the orders which we have booked till January and February. The price of solar is ₹2.50 while the price of thermal power or any other source of power is more than ₹4 or ₹5. I feel the prices should be somewhere between ₹24-₹25, and as the polysilicon availability will increase from Q2 or Q3 then we will have the increase in production capacities in India, the price will come down. I feel that pricing somewhere between ₹23-₹25, for a module is sustainable and acceptable to the market. Also, the power that we are able to sell to any entity should still be the cheapest option of power. The quality of the raw material is also very important. So, we are also looking forward to providing a zero defect product to my customer.”
Mr Sachin Patra, Senior Manager, EnKing International talked about working towards better climatic conditions and bringing sustainable solutions for the low carbon footprints. He said, “The advent of renewable energy itself was to decarbonize the grid all across the world and when the Kyoto protocol came into picture, it provided an incentive of earning additional revenue through the sale of carbon credits. The carbon credit industry had a downfall after 2012 till 2018 but right now it has again picked up and it’s a good chance for all the developers to look at carbon credits as an alternative source of revenue. Maybe it is not as significant as the revenue that comes from the sale of power because that’s the primary source of revenue for any RE developer. In this turbulent time, when there is a lot of uncertainty on the price of wafers and cells, it could be a source of revenue which provides a constant and dependable source of income for the next 10-20 years. Everyone is looking at renewable energy adoption as there are various initiatives such as the RE100 initiative, where companies sign declarations to achieve 100% renewable energy usage by a certain period of time. We have a common saying, the triple bottom line principle in which one has to look into 3 Ps, people, planet and profit, while undertaking any sustainability initiative. RE stands on all the 3 Ps, it provides job opportunities to people, it is profitable and it is also helping in reducing emissions.”
